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Kionon
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Post by Kionon » Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:29 pm

I should have cited my sources. Among them are the Korean Times, the Seoul Times, and The Economist.
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BasharOfTheAges
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Post by BasharOfTheAges » Sat Nov 03, 2007 7:56 pm

Zarxrax wrote:
dwchang wrote:In fact, it's been argued that once things get desperate with the famine, North Korea WILL invade since wars stimulate the economy.
http://economics.about.com/od/warandthe ... conomy.htm
Economists all deal in shady logic of one form or another (as evidenced in the fact that their theories are often heavily politically/socially biased to the economic forces that are prevalent in a given nation) - the opinion of one is really just as questionably valid as that of another.
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Kionon
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Post by Kionon » Sat Nov 03, 2007 9:28 pm

BasharOfTheAges wrote:
Zarxrax wrote:
dwchang wrote:In fact, it's been argued that once things get desperate with the famine, North Korea WILL invade since wars stimulate the economy.
http://economics.about.com/od/warandthe ... conomy.htm
Economists all deal in shady logic of one form or another (as evidenced in the fact that their theories are often heavily politically/socially biased to the economic forces that are prevalent in a given nation) - the opinion of one is really just as questionably valid as that of another.
You know I just, just quoted these same quotes to my mother this morning as we discussed the claim Iraq would be over in 2 weeks.

Vyacheslav von Plehve: "What this country needs is a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution."

Robert Wilson Lynd: "The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions."
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Kalium
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Post by Kalium » Sun Nov 04, 2007 12:39 am

BasharOfTheAges wrote:
Zarxrax wrote:
dwchang wrote:In fact, it's been argued that once things get desperate with the famine, North Korea WILL invade since wars stimulate the economy.
http://economics.about.com/od/warandthe ... conomy.htm
Economists all deal in shady logic of one form or another (as evidenced in the fact that their theories are often heavily politically/socially biased to the economic forces that are prevalent in a given nation) - the opinion of one is really just as questionably valid as that of another.
The broken windows fallacy is actually important. What tends to drive economies during war period is the massive government spending. It also tends to be problematic later in the form of massive government debt.

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Post by godix » Sun Nov 04, 2007 11:11 am

Kalium wrote:
BasharOfTheAges wrote:
Zarxrax wrote:
dwchang wrote:In fact, it's been argued that once things get desperate with the famine, North Korea WILL invade since wars stimulate the economy.
http://economics.about.com/od/warandthe ... conomy.htm
Economists all deal in shady logic of one form or another (as evidenced in the fact that their theories are often heavily politically/socially biased to the economic forces that are prevalent in a given nation) - the opinion of one is really just as questionably valid as that of another.
The broken windows fallacy is actually important. What tends to drive economies during war period is the massive government spending. It also tends to be problematic later in the form of massive government debt.
The broken window fallacy is itself a fallacy. Planned obsolescence is, essentially, the broken window fallacy on a macro scale. And it works. I don't like it, but the idea does actually work. As can be witnessed by the fact that MS has had 7 major OS's in the last 12 years with lack of support for old ones to encourage upgrading.

Something else to note, social security was a program stated directly to fight a depression. Decades later it is now one of the largest single outlay categories the US has. OTOH we aren't still paying for tanks to defeat Hitler. From a cold purely economic point of view it's probably better to have massive government spending a short time rather than massive government spending which becomes an untouchable third rail and lingers around forever. Taking a more rational point of view then human life and foreign relations and so on come into the equation of course.

Which all means that war can and often does boost the economy for a short time. Over the long run it's opportunity costs and human costs overshadow that.
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Post by dwchang » Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:21 pm

Zarxrax wrote:
dwchang wrote:In fact, it's been argued that once things get desperate with the famine, North Korea WILL invade since wars stimulate the economy.
http://economics.about.com/od/warandthe ... conomy.htm
Hmmm I dunno. I remember taking an econ class during my undergrad (OK that was a LONG time ago) and they explained something how if the Government spent one dollar during war-times, it was equivalent to the consumer spending two or something like that. The details are obviously shady, but they were basically saying it was *good* for the Government to be spending during wartimes and that it stimulated the economy (for the short term).

The most obvious ways would be in the employment rate (I would imagine). I'll get back to you on the details. My father is (fortunately?) a Ph. D. in Economics of all things and I imagine if I ask him about this I'll get the details of what I was *trying* to say about Government spending. Consider it a 'work in progress' (this post that is) :P. Then again, I'm sure he would agree with others in that it's not really a 'science.'

Back on the subject though, even disregarding the economic comment...given the (lack of) sanity in their dictator, I wouldn't at all be surprised if he invaded just for the sake of "you assholes aren't taking us alive" point of pride.

In any case, it's been something I've thought about for YEARS even as a kid (North Korea that is).
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Post by Zarxrax » Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:35 pm

Kionon wrote:Korean politics are getting scary. They have their own evangelical Christian radical right movement going on. Five of the worlds largest Megachurches can be found in South Korea.
I'm actually fairly surprised that Christianity has such a root in Korea. Has any other major religion traditionally been practiced in the area?
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Post by Zarxrax » Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:44 pm

godix wrote:The broken window fallacy is itself a fallacy. Planned obsolescence is, essentially, the broken window fallacy on a macro scale. And it works. I don't like it, but the idea does actually work. As can be witnessed by the fact that MS has had 7 major OS's in the last 12 years with lack of support for old ones to encourage upgrading.
You mean on a micro scale. And planned obsolescence is clearly much different than the broken window fallacy. This is simply technological advancement. When you purchase a new operating system, its not the same as the old one--it does MUCH more. Likewise, the old ones are still perfectly usable for the purpose they were originally purchased for. A 100mhz Pentium running windows 95 is perfectly capable of typing up reports, surfing the internet, playing music, and yes, they even play SkiFree.
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Kionon
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Post by Kionon » Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:47 pm

Zarxrax wrote:
Kionon wrote:Korean politics are getting scary. They have their own evangelical Christian radical right movement going on. Five of the worlds largest Megachurches can be found in South Korea.
I'm actually fairly surprised that Christianity has such a root in Korea. Has any other major religion traditionally been practiced in the area?
A mixture of Buddhism, Conficianism, and Shinto mainly. Pretty much the same general flavor as Japan, but Christianity is apparently insane. If I recall correctly, the Economist claimed that a full third of Koreans claimed Christianity, and that 1 in 20 citizens of Seoul were members of the megachurch across from the National Assembly (that's 800,000). Let's see if I can pull up the quote...
Wikipedia wrote:As of 2005, approximately 22 million or 46.5% of the South Korean population express no religious preference. Of the remainder, 13.7 million are Christian (of which 8.6 million profess to be Protestants and 5.1 million to be Catholics), 10.7 million are Buddhist, and less than half a million belong to various minor religions including Jeungsando and Wonbuddhism. (Source: According to figures compiled by the South Korean National Statistical Office. NSO online KOSIS database. Retrieved on 2006-08-23. This should not be confused with other figures which report only the percentage of the religious population that are Buddhist, Christian, etc.)
The Economist wrote:The largest of them all, Yoido Full Gospel Church, sits opposite the national assembly in Seoul, an astute piece of political positioning. It looks somewhat unprepossessing—a brownish blob surrounded by office buildings—but Yoido boasts 830,000 members, a number it says is rising by 3,000 a month. One in 20 people in greater Seoul is a member.
The Protestant surge in South Korea has slowed down a bit recently, a development which is variously blamed on changes in school laws and the abuses of some clerical families. Even so, the growth has been phenomenal. In 1950 only 2.4% of South Koreans were Protestant. Now the figure is close to 20%. Counting Catholics (which many Korean Protestants don't), Christians make up close to 30% of the population. “Koreans don't play church,” says an American elder at Yoido.
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Post by dwchang » Sun Nov 04, 2007 3:18 pm

Kionon wrote:
Zarxrax wrote:
Kionon wrote:Korean politics are getting scary. They have their own evangelical Christian radical right movement going on. Five of the worlds largest Megachurches can be found in South Korea.
I'm actually fairly surprised that Christianity has such a root in Korea. Has any other major religion traditionally been practiced in the area?
A mixture of Buddhism, Conficianism, and Shinto mainly. Pretty much the same general flavor as Japan, but Christianity is apparently insane. If I recall correctly, the Economist claimed that a full third of Koreans claimed Christianity, and that 1 in 20 citizens of Seoul were members of the megachurch across from the National Assembly (that's 800,000). Let's see if I can pull up the quote...
I wouldn't say it's necessarily like Japan in that...Japan doesn't have that many Christians in it compared to Korea. In fact, that's the major difference between Korea and most of the other surrounding Asian nations.

Other than that, yes Alan, there are a lot of Christians in Korea :P. I'm surprised you haven't seen the massive-mega weddings on the news or anything. Weddings where like 100+ couples get married all at once at a mega-church.

At the sae time, I wouldn't say it's that big of a problem as folks are implying. It's not like you walk down the street and folks harass you about religion or anything and it isn't as deeply rooted in the politics or anything. I think that sentiment in this thread has been way overblown by some people. Frankly, having lived and visited enough times, I can tell you otherwise.

Not to say there isn't corruption (in fact the Government is QUITE corrupt), but again for every day life? It doesn't affect me at all.

And I've been around that Church in Yoido. In fact, a lot of my family lives around there...
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