Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group G & H Results]

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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby Kinematics » Wed May 30, 2012 6:39 pm

Nya-chan wrote:Honestly, as a judge, listening to the eight AMVs to some (in your ears) bad music is a murder/self-imposed-suicide. I am glad half of the first round is over ^^;


Heh, can understand that. The thought crossed my mind when I was writing up the idea, but I was trying to keep from speculating too elaborately.

MimS wrote:As an editor, when we're 8, it feels like "I just need to make an average vid, it'll be ok to go further", when we're 2 or 4 it 's like "I have to beat them all if I have to go further" and I prefer this option to the 1st one x)


Yeah, that gets into the mathematical/game-theory side of it, which is part of why I thought the bracket size of 6 might work better (along with reducing the number of 'painful' songs a judge might have to listen to).

Anyway, some more detailed thoughts:

Spoiler :
The value of an 'average' video depends on how many of the other participants try to make their 'best' videos. The greater the number of participants, the less likely any single individual is going to put in their best effort. On the other hand, the fewer the number of participants, the more likely a 'best' effort is going to get eliminated, regardless of its quality relative to other brackets.

It's mainly a prediction on the average number of videos that will cross a "worth keeping" threshold. With 2 participants, there's a high likelihood that both are worth keeping, but only one is allowed to proceed. Similarly for 3-4 particpants. At 4-5 participants, there's a high likelihood of 1-2 entries -not- being worth keeping, and as you get up to 8 you'll probably have a fairly wide spread of quality. I expect that spread, when graded, to most often fall out like:

Code: Select all
|x x x
|      x x
|          x
|            x
|             x
+-------------------


IE: a few at the upper end of quality that are clustered together, a few moderate ones, and then a few that fall off quickly.


Anyway, I would consider the selection of a particular elimination format to be done for three goals:

1) to mitigate against random distribution errors
2) to generate as many videos by the best participants as possible
3) to encourage participants to put their best effort into each round


Suppose we have 4 participants. For comparison, we will set the quality of what these participants can produce as: 9.1, 9.0, 8.0, 7.0. However we don't know where they're going to fall within the brackets. The two primary combinations we'll see are:

1) A: 9.1 vs 9.0, B: 8.0 vs 7.0; final round is 9.1 vs 8.0
2) A: 9.1 vs 8.0, B: 9.0 vs 7.0; final round is 9.1 vs 9.0

In these cases we get to see either:

1)
1 video by 7.0
2 videos by 8.0
1 video by 9.0
2 videos by 9.1

or

2)
1 video by 7.0
1 video by 8.0
2 videos by 9.0
2 videos by 9.1

With the random distribution of the participants we don't know which we're going to end up with, but we would -prefer- to see the second option, as that would give us more videos by the best participants.

This example is a little weak since I'm trying to keep it simple, but the effect can be seen with how those two brackets were generated in the first place -- two groups of four that each contained those participants.

If it had been a combined bracket, we'd instead have one elimination with all 4, of which 9.1 and 9.0 would proceed regardless of which brackets they originated from (A or B). It would have the same number of videos, but we'd have one less song.


However, which configuration is likely to push the participants to do their best? With two one-on-ones, second place gets dropped immediately. With a combined set of 4, second place is 'good enough'. On the other hand, with the combined set you have to beat at least 2 other people, while with the one-on-one you only have to beat one person. So there's balances in both directions.


Perhaps the mahjong bracket size of 4 would do better in terms of forcing tighter competition, but it would be problematic in the first round due to issues of participants dropping out, and the fact that quite a few are really not going to be so great. I can see 8 as being excessive to maintain over the entire tournament, but it's certainly a stronger choice for the first round.

Drops are also a problem. One person dropping out of a set of 4 puts the end result critically low on participants. Two dropping out means there's no point in running that round at all. Further, if someone drops out of a later round, there's not as much of a pool to pull from if you wanted to re-seed empty slots.

With a set of 6, one person dropping out has a pretty limited effect on that round, and two people dropping out still allows for the round to be run. It also allows better options for re-seeds if that was done.

With a set of 8, dropping out is mostly a non-issue.



Overall, I could see it done in one of two ways:

1) Groups of 8 for round 1, then groups of 4 from then on, until the finals. Re-seed empty slots from the nearest ancestors based on score if anyone drops out.

2) Groups of 6 for the entire run, with the finals being a 3-way showdown instead of one-on-one. Re-seed empty slots from the nearest ancestors based on score if anyone drops out or if you're short participants due to non-power-of-2 numbering.


I'm more inclined towards #2, since that allows brackets to mix together immediately, whereas for option #1 brackets wouldn't combine until round 3. It also never allows a one-on-one, even in the finals.
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby RAWdangers » Wed May 30, 2012 7:09 pm

Screw statistics for contests. The structure of this works fine (its not perfect but it works). People need to stop bitchin and complanin about the judges. When you signed up for the damn contest you agreed that the judges rulings were final. To bitch about it now is idiotic.
I got elimanted, alright i may not be happy, but i moved on!
The problem is not the contest but the contestants.
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby Animated » Wed May 30, 2012 9:32 pm

RAWdangers wrote:Screw statistics for contests. The structure of this works fine (its not perfect but it works). People need to stop bitchin and complanin about the judges. When you signed up for the damn contest you agreed that the judges rulings were final. To bitch about it now is idiotic.
I got elimanted, alright i may not be happy, but i moved on!
The problem is not the contest but the contestants.

Watch out, we've got a badass over here! :nose:
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby RAWdangers » Thu May 31, 2012 1:52 am

Animated wrote:
RAWdangers wrote:Screw statistics for contests. The structure of this works fine (its not perfect but it works). People need to stop bitchin and complanin about the judges. When you signed up for the damn contest you agreed that the judges rulings were final. To bitch about it now is idiotic.
I got elimanted, alright i may not be happy, but i moved on!
The problem is not the contest but the contestants.

Watch out, we've got a badass over here! :nose:


Got to do it with the meme, bruh! :nono:
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby ProjectBarcodeError » Tue Jun 05, 2012 1:48 pm

any news about Group C and/or D ?
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby mirkosp » Tue Jun 05, 2012 1:53 pm

I think results are stalled at me, I didn't have much time to watch videos lately due to cpu occupied with encodes (aka videos would skip like hell so I couldn't really watch and judge them properly)+been away the weekend+e3 going on... :sweat:
I'm getting to voting right now. :)
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby ProjectBarcodeError » Tue Jun 05, 2012 2:15 pm

mirkosp wrote:e3 going on...


E3 was shit, your argument is invalid. :nono:

joking. at least it's good to have a quick response about what's going on ^^.
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby mirkosp » Tue Jun 05, 2012 3:41 pm

Just sent in my votes.

And you can only know e3 was shit because you saw it as well, I take, which means that it took away quite a few hours to you too. :roll:
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby ProjectBarcodeError » Tue Jun 05, 2012 9:47 pm

touché.

8-)
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby LopezAMV » Tue Jun 05, 2012 10:54 pm

ProjectBarcodeError wrote:
mirkosp wrote:e3 going on...


E3 was shit, your argument is invalid. :nono:

joking. at least it's good to have a quick response about what's going on ^^.

Halo 4. Nuff said 8-)
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group A & B Results]

Postby Radical_Yue » Wed Jun 06, 2012 12:06 pm

Working on C & D results right now. Will post them soon-ish.

It's rather hard to do this in-between calls at work ^^;;
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group C & D Results]

Postby CodeZTM » Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:48 pm

The only solace I have in these results (my prediction bracket just got slapped upside the face) is that I know Gunther is going to post something very cute. |:>
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group C & D Results]

Postby MimS » Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:52 pm

Well don't want to sound harsh but, imho, Copycat_Revolver's "originality" is overestimated ^^"
Couldn't even finish his vid. Just my op anyway but well... I guess, as a French, I don't have the same humor x)
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group C & D Results]

Postby GuntherAMVs » Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:52 pm

GuntherAMVs wrote:In the event I go down in flames,
I would like the fellow contestants to know that I will have a "Booth of Encouragement" set up on the outskirts of the Editing Playing Field.


Spoiler :
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CodeZTM wrote:The only solace I have in these results (my prediction bracket just got slapped upside the face) is that I know Gunther is going to post something very cute. |:>

Code knows~
Code knows how this works~ <3

CONGRATS, EVERYONE~!
AVENGE ME IN THE FINALS <3
LIVE YOUR ART. LOVE YOUR LIFE.
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Re: Round 2 - Results [Updated with Group C & D Results]

Postby RAWdangers » Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:57 pm

GuntherAMVs wrote:
GuntherAMVs wrote:In the event I go down in flames,
I would like the fellow contestants to know that I will have a "Booth of Encouragement" set up on the outskirts of the Editing Playing Field.




CodeZTM wrote:The only solace I have in these results (my prediction bracket just got slapped upside the face) is that I know Gunther is going to post something very cute. |:>

Code knows~
Code knows how this works~ <3

CONGRATS, EVERYONE~!
AVENGE ME IN THE FINALS <3


While i can't say i agree with the some of the results, congrats to the winners for moving on! and thats too damn cute Summer X.X Summer overload X.X *poof*
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