Oscars

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Oscars

Postby Otohiko » Sun Feb 25, 2007 5:43 pm

Would anyone who actually gives a damn about these care to explain what the standings are like this year, and perhaps make predictions? I don't mean that as a sneer, expression of elitism or insult. I'm genuinely curious.

Frankly, I have NO idea what happened this year. I'm as isolated from mainstream cinema as I am from TV. :?
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Postby godix » Sun Feb 25, 2007 5:45 pm

I predict that within a month even the people who sat down and watched the whole show wouldn't be able to tell you who won in more than 2 or 3 categories.
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Postby jasper-isis » Sun Feb 25, 2007 5:55 pm

The only film I saw this year that's stuck in my head enough for me to hope it wins something is Children of Men. And that's only up for cinematography, editing, and screenplay. :(

Here's the official nominations list:
http://www.oscars.org/79academyawards/noms.html
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Postby Otohiko » Sun Feb 25, 2007 5:56 pm

jasper-isis wrote:The only film I saw this year that's stuck in my head enough for me to hope it wins something is Children of Men. And that's only up for cinematography, editing, and screenplay. :(


Haha, though I haven't seen it, it gets a point from me for featuring King Crimson :P

That's perhaps one of the only films of the last year I've been curious about and will probably end up checking out.
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Postby Minion » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:23 pm

i predict that i won't watch it.
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Postby Brad » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:30 pm

I've always been into movies and thusly I always tend to try to catch the Oscars, but this year I have found myself especially tuned in, and over the past few days, I decided to catch up on the majority of the major nominees. So, for most of the major categories, I've seen at least 80% of the nominees (unfortunately wasn't able to see any of the documentaries or short films). I was planning to make this post in my LJ anyway so I might as well do it here as well.


Best Picture
Nominees: Babel, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Queen
This is a category that more often than not has a few nominees that I simply don't agree with, or think are outright bad films. This year, that's not the case. There isn't an outright bad film amongst the nominees. Granted, there are some that are better than others, but that boils down to a simple case of taste, but as it is, I can honestly say I won't be terribly disappointed by any of them winning. The only nominee I haven't seen is Letters From Iwo Jima so I'll have to leave it absent in my predictions.

What will likely win: Babel
What should win: Babel or The Departed

This was a tough call to make in terms of what should win. I think each film is flawed, but not to the point of making it an outright bad film. They're both radically different films but each one is dramatically impacting and memorable. I think I would likely prefer to see The Departed win, if only to give Scorsese his due, and for the fact that Crash won last year, and everybody is comparing Babel to Crash (which personally I don't agree with. They're only similar in their method of storytelling). Thing is, I could also potentially see Little Miss Sunshine taking it.. So, I don't know. It's a tough category to call.

What else deserved to be nominated: Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth, United 93, Little Children
Wouldn't mind seeing off the list: The Queen (again, wasn't a bad movie at all, but I do think it's become somewhat overrated).


Best Director
Nominees: Alejandro González Iñárritu (for Babel), Martin Scorsese (for The Departed), Clint Eastwood (for Letters from Iwo Jima), Stephen Frears (for The Queen), Paul Greengrass (for United 93)
As you can see, with the exception of United 93, it's almost a mirror of the Best Picture category, though with good reason. Typically if you subscribe to the idea that the director is the one truly creating the film, than the best film would have the best director. I can agree up to a point, but personally, I judge it by taking into account what the director must've had to have gone through while making it, the challenges involved, how they were able to put their vision on screen, and given the circumstances, there are some occasions this year where I felt the film deserved more credit than it's direction (if that makes any sense).

Who will likely win: Martin Scorsese
Who should win: Alejandro González Iñárritu or Paul Greengrass

I have a hard time picturing Greengrass winning considering United 93 wasn't nominated for Best Picture, but having seen the film, and taking into consideration the lack of any kind of star power (meaning, there really were no real recognizable actors in the film) and the way the film was shot, edited, etc., I can truly put the entire weight of the film on his back, whereas with The Departed, I feel more of the weight is on the backs of it's all-star cast and a very well-written script. Now, not to say that Scorsese didn't do a good job. Quite the contrary. If he wins, I will be perfectly happy. But for a film like United 93 (and to an extent in the same vein, Babel, hence why I say he should also win), it truly is a testament to the achievement of the director.

Who else deserved to be nominated: Alfonso Cuarón (for Children of Men), Guillermo del Toro (for Pan's Labyrinth), Darren Aronofsky (for The Fountain)
Wouldn't mind seeing off the list: Stephen Frears (Once again, an all round fine job, but the majority of the film's power comes from the performance of Helen Mirren)


Best Actor In A Leading Role
Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio (for Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (for Half Nelson), Peter O'Toole (for Venus), Will Smith (for The Pursuit of Happyness), Forest Whitaker (for The Last King of Scotland)
First off, I was unable to get to watching Venus (was the last one on my list. Didn't have time) so I can't speak for Peter O'Toole's performance, though I hear it was pretty good. Having seen the rest of the nominees, I definitely have to say that I really would've rather seen Leonardo DiCaprio nominated for his role in The Departed. His performance is what really holds up a good deal of that film. His performance in Blood Diamond was good (despite his messed up accent, which everybody loves to point out), but I can't really say I preferred it over his other role.

Who will likely win: Forest Whitaker
Who should win: Ryan Gosling

The Last King of Scotland was the last film I ended up watching (finished it like an hour ago) and I have to say, it was a phenomenal film, and the hype surrounding Forest Whitaker's performance is certainly well deserved... However. It's a supporting role. I hate to say it but it simply is. He is not the main character of the story. Now, granted, he is definitely the emotional core that drives the film, and his screen presence is incredible, and one of the best performances of the year... just.. not in a leading role. So, that being said, I've gotta go with Ryan Gosling. He did a simply fantastic job in Half Nelson and he has become the actor to watch in the future. Unfortunately, there's simply no way Forest Whitaker isn't going to take this one home.

Who else deserved to be nominated: Clive Owen (for Children of Men), Gael García Bernal (for The Science of Sleep), Sasha Baren Cohen (for Borat)
Wouldn't mind seeing off the list: Forest Whitaker (for reasons I stated above) & Will Smith (again, a good but really overrated performance)


Best Actress In A Leading Role
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (for Volver), Judi Dench (for Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (for The Queen), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Kate Winslet (for Little Children)
Here's one of the major categories where I didn't see three of the nominations (Volver, The Devil Wears Prada, and Notes on a Scandal. I really really wanted to see Notes but was unable to find a good quality copy of it... yes.. copy.. shush!) so it's hard for me to really put up much of a debate, but I have definitely heard enough about all of the nominees to make a pretty fair judgment.

Who will likely win: Toss up between Helen Mirren, Meryl Streep, and Judi Dench
Who should win: Kate Winslet or Helen Mirren

Yeah, I know. The only two I saw :\ Not terribly subjective I realize, but for one, I was absolutely blown away by Kate Winslet in Little Children. It was one of the best performances of her career and she made me love the movie. I liked her performance better than Mirren's but purely for semantic reasons. See, Helen Mirren was playing Queen Elizabeth. A factual character who we've all seen before on television and have a general understanding of how she would likely act. Thusly, when we see Mirren pulling this off with extremely sharp and precise skill, it's very easy to be extremely impressed by her performance. And I'm not trying to take away from it at all. She did a fantastic job, and made me actually interested and sympathetic for this traditionally dull and cold character. But at the same time, I can't help but take in that reasoning and thusly prefer the performance of somebody who is purely written from imagination.

Who else deserved to be nominated: Ivana Baquero (for Pan's Labyrinth), Maggie Gyllenhaal (for Sherrybaby)
Wouldn't mind seeing off the list: Nobody



Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Nominees: Alan Arkin (for Little Miss Sunshine), Jackie Earl Haley (for Little Chidren), Djimon Honsou (for Blood Diamond), Eddie Murphy (for Dreamgirls), Mark Wahlberg (for The Departed)
This is a really tough category for me to get behind. Probably the hardest of any of them. Mainly because, I have seen each of these films, and 3 of the 5, I thought were "just ok." Specifically with Jackie Earl Haley (whose character I really question the relevance of.. He's really mainly there to justify the behavior of other more prominent characters.. I think he got the nom because the person he was playing was this kind of sick depraved conflicted guy, which he does a good enough job of, but doesn't really move me or make me care much for him), Djimon Honsou (who's a great actor, but in this film, the only times we really ever see any kind of real emotion is in the few times he is screaming. The rest of the time he is just kind of following along... Didn't work for me), and Eddie Murphy (a lot of people touted this as his "return" to serious roles and shows that he really can act.. To me, I just saw typical Eddie Murphy. Granted I enjoyed him here more than I did in most of the films he's made in the past 5 years, but even still, it was "just ok.")

Who will likely win: I really have no idea
Who should win: Alan Arkin

Out of all of the performances nominated, this is the only one I can find myself getting behind. His performance really helped build upon the dynamic of the ensemble cast, and he really stuck out as a character you wanted to see. He's a really great actor who hasn't had his due, and I'd love to see him win it here. As far as Mark Wahlberg goes, I did think he did a good job in The Departed, but I think I would've sooner given it to Martin Sheen.

Who else deserved to be nominated: Martin Sheen (for The Departed), Philip Seymour Hoffman (for Mission Impossible 3. He made the entire film worth seeing), Brad Pitt (for Babel. Despite what the trailer might make you think, pretty much everybody in the film is a supporting character)
Wouldn't mind seeing off the list: Jackie Earl Haley, Djimon Honsou, Eddie Murphy



Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Nominees: Adriana Barraza (for Babel), Cate Blanchett (for Notes on a Scandal), Abigail Breslin (for Little Miss Sunshine), Jennifer Hudson (for Dreamgirls), Rinko Kikuchi (for Babel)
Once again, I was unable to see Notes on a Scandal so I can't really judge Cate Blanchett's performance, but from what I've heard she is in top form as usual. This is also another category I am conflicted about. 3 of the 4 nominees that I've seen I would gladly give the award to.

Who will likely win: Jennifer Hudson
Who should win: Adriana Barraza, Abigail Breslin, or Rinko Kikuchi

All 3 of these nominees put on fantastic performances. I will say that I do think either of the Babel nominees probably deserves it more, but I must admit I really loved Abigail Breslin's performance, and she made the film what it is. Plus I'd just love to hear her acceptance speech. Unfortunately, the award will more than likely go to the overhyped performance of Jennifer Hudson. Admittedly, she was probably one of the best actors in the film, but despite that, I felt a lot of it was just overacted and people are falling over themselves for it. I think she has a stellar voice, but I won't give an acting award to a voice. And personally, I actually thought that at least in the later part of the film, when the girls are more grown up and mature, Beyonce put on a better performance, though it doesn't make up for her horrible acting in the first half.

Who else deserved to be nominated: Shareeka Epps (for Half Nelson), Maribel Verdú (for Pan's Labyrinth)
Wouldn't mind seeing off the list: Jennifer Hudson


Well, those are the major categories, and I'm running out of time :-o The show actually starts in around half an hour. So I'm gonna sum up the remainder of the ones I have predictions for.


Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Guillermo Arriaga (for Babel), Iris Yamashita (for Letters from Iwo Jima), Michael Arndt (for Little Miss Sunshine), Guillermo del Toro (for Pan's Labyrinth), Peter Morgan (for The Queen)

Who will likely win: Peter Morgan or Guillermo Arriaga
Who should win: Michael Arndt or Guillermo del Toro



Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat, Children of Men, The Departed, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal

Who will likely win: Notes on a Scandal or The Departed
Who should win: The Departed or Little Children



Best Cinematography
Nominees: The Black Dahlia, Children of Men, The Illusionist, Pan's Labyrinth, The Prestige

Who will likely win: Children of Men
Who should win: Children of Men



Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Cars, Happy Feet, Monster House

Who will likely win: Cars
Who should win: Cars



Woot! :O Enjoy!
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Postby Otohiko » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:31 pm

Minion wrote:i predict that i won't watch it.

Isn't it supposed to be on already? :roll:
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Postby Minion » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:32 pm

i wouldn't know
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Postby Otohiko » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:35 pm

Nice, thanks brad

Now we'll see how things actually stack up. I looked at what BBC said about the winning odds and popular choices, and they're pretty much in the same vein...
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Postby Flint the Dwarf » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:53 pm

As long as Pan's Labyrinth takes Best Foreign Language Film, I'll be happy.

AtomX wrote:Unfortunately, there's simply no way Forest Whitaker isn't going to take this one home.

While I do agree that his was more a supporting role, Forest Whitaker is, and has been for some time, a great actor and I don't think he's taken Best Actor away before. This is probably his best opportunity, and his best role, so I'm willing to allow it.
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Postby Kusoyaro » Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:56 pm

Flint the Dwarf wrote:Forest Whitaker is, and has been for some time, a great actor


Word. He's GHOST DOG.
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Postby Brad » Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:00 pm

Flint the Dwarf wrote:As long as Pan's Labyrinth takes Best Foreign Language Film, I'll be happy.


Geh.. Forgot to mention this one. Though, it should be obvious given my other comments that I definitely hope it wins, and up until a few days ago I would've said it was a shoe-in, but I've been reading up on the other nominees, and I don't think it's gonna be as clear cut as I had hoped. I mean, I can't say Pan's HAS to win considering I haven't actually SEEN the other films, but I do sincerely hope it does since I absolutely adored the film and think it should've gotten the nom for Best Picture.
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Postby dokool » Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:21 pm

I'm frustrated that I've only been able to see a couple of the noms this year (particularly The Departed, which I enjoyed on all counts).

I'm looking forward to catching up on a few of them once they come out on DVD in the states. The Oscars are pretty big news here because of Rinko Kikuchi's nomination, so I expect to hear about the results (and how she either deserved the win or was robbed) for a couple days.
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Postby Brad » Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:26 pm

dokool wrote:I'm frustrated that I've only been able to see a couple of the noms this year (particularly The Departed, which I enjoyed on all counts).

I'm looking forward to catching up on a few of them once they come out on DVD in the states. The Oscars are pretty big news here because of Rinko Kikuchi's nomination, so I expect to hear about the results (and how she either deserved the win or was robbed) for a couple days.


As I said, if she does win, I will have zero problem with it. Her performance was one of the most electric and interesting to watch of any of them
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Postby Tsunami Jones » Sun Feb 25, 2007 10:32 pm

Flint the Dwarf wrote:As long as Pan's Labyrinth takes Best Foreign Language Film, I'll be happy.


:(
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