by iserlohn » Sat Dec 14, 2002 4:48 pm
Broadway is hardly undergoing a slump right now...in the 80's yes, but the trends are changing, which is what causes people to say that about both (in b'way's case, the shift to adapting films. Don't get me wrong, I love Hairspray, but it's not the most creative or original show out there...even Clearchannel approved of it enough to finance it).
That being said, AMV is also in a transitional time, and it's one which requires a lot of thought an analysis to really get ahold of. First, there is valid reason for people calling this the year of the slump before AWA - everybody decent was holding out for it, causing the distribution of higher quality videos to be held off as non-AWA cons were being bypassed for the Pro/Expo competitions. This is a shift in creator mentality which has led many to bring up issues of elitism (purported or otherwise is your opinion) in the community - this sort of holding back can lead many to gain the opinion that others are starting to feel that "my work is only good enough for awa and to hell with the simpletons who aren't top creators elsewhere." Again, whether or not you feel this is true is your opinion.
This year has also been the year of the screwed up contest. Almost every major convention's event, short of Otakon and AWA (and I believe A-Kon, can someone confirm?) have had either massive technical or organizational problems ranging from the Katsucon bombardment and utter lack of professionalism to the AnimeNorth sound problems Animagic's contest being outright cancelled. This may contribute to the AWA holdup, but is really the reason why creators need to get more involved in the contests with the running of the contests. 2003 should be the year where submitters email the con in advance to find out exactly what is going to be used to compile the contest and plan accordingly. Katsucon has already come forward and said that this year the contest will be compiled on a mac using final cut pro 2. If anybody submits in a format this can not read, it's their fault, not the con's (another word of advice to those sending to katsu, the contest will be mastered to two DVD-Rs, so make sure your video can compress well).
The community itself has changed most, however, in 2002. The falling costs of hardware and proliferation of anime has made getting into the hobby easier and more widespread as ever. While this has brought an influx of new talent into AMVmaking, it has also changed the face of the average creator greatly, and in many ways not for the better. During 2002, the site and/or the forums have needed to be taken down at least 2-3 times due to user actions and flame wars, and many of the forums are still to this day unreadable due to the lacking maturity levels. Sadly, this trend doesn't seem to be appearing to reverse itself, and with the planned anime invasion of television over the next year, could indeed get worse before things improve. Many creators are already seeking solitude and withdrawing from the visible community, and as the new generation of editors grows up, they may return, but if the situation gets worse, others may leave in droves as well.
Content wise, AMV has moved towards the dramatic. As dokidoki's mid-year statistics revealed, comedy videos have undergone a substantial decline, while action videos have declined minorly, and drama videos have increased exponentially. This trend will probably continue for another few months and remain visible through the winter con season, and then a shift back towards one of the other areas will occur. This tends to work in cycles, as can be pointed out by the glut of action videos from a couple years ago.
Another noticable trend this year was the increased visibility of mediocrity in AMVs, especially on the con circuit. With much of the better work held off for AWA, many videos which would have failed to make a contest two years ago found themselves on the big screens, and unless the community collapses on itself, is going to continue. Truly bad videos seem to be on the decline, but truly great ones aren't showing up in droves either. Sturgeon's law is becoming Sturgeon's bell curve.
The other big trend in 2002 was the after-effects and matting/rotoscoping boom. This was especially visible watching AWA submissions and will probably continue to wow audiences for the next year or so much as lip synching has done in the past. Newer creators and less-flashy editors will see their works falling behind (and to a degree already are) unless there is 1)a rennaissance in conceptual thinking or 2)a passing of the trend and a return to simplicity.
Overall, things at the end of 2002 aren't necessarily worse or better than before, but they are considerably different. 2003 should prove interesting to see if issues such as the distribution of higher-end videos corrects itself or if fragmentation will begin to make some serious ingrounds.
"I'm recording an album tonight. Funny material and laughter will be dubbed in later."
--Bill Hicks